MANY industries have good reason for caution at the moment, given the fears of a "double dip" in the world economy. But the mood in aviation, especially among the aircraftmakers, remains optimistic. This week Airbus produced new long-range forecasts, predicting that a combination of vigorous emerging-market growth and the need to replace ageing and inefficient planes in the rich countries will mean a demand, between now and 2030, for almost 28,000 large aircraft (passenger planes with over 100 seats, plus freighters) worth $3.5 trillion. Airbus's archrival, Boeing, is even more boosterish: it predicted earlier this month that there would be demand for around 31,000 planes, worth $4 trillion, by 2030. Both planemakers are already seeing signs of this in their bulging order books.
The aircraftmakers' confidence about the emerging world is based on what appears to be an iron law of aviation: rising numbers of urban middle-class people will mean rising demand for air travel, whatever short-term blips the economy suffers. Since the 1970s, through oil shocks, Middle East wars, terrorist attacks and disease outbreaks, the number of passenger-miles flown seems always to have snapped back to its long-term growth trend (see chart 1). At the moment Airbus reckons there are 39 "megacities" worldwide whose airports handle more than 10,000 long-haul passengers a day. In 20 years it expects there to be almost 90 such cities, many of them in Asia. In terms of the numbers of very large aircraft (like the A380) that they handle, the world's busiest hubs by then will be Dubai, Beijing Capital and Hong Kong, with Heathrow and JFK in fourth and fifth place.
Source: http://www.economist.com/blogs/gulliver/2011/09/aviation-industry?fsrc=rss
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